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Watching Rome Burn & Hell Freeze
The fun physics of global cataclysmPosted in For Your Consideration
What do record fire seasons in the West, record hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, record winter storms in the South and the hottest years in history have to do with each other? Everything.
This article originally appeared in the December 2019 issue of my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Schools in the Time of COVID
The Decision Will Ultimately Make ItselfPosted in Thoughts
You don’t tug on Superman’s cape. You don’t spit into the wind. Yes, schools are desperately important to kids. No, COVID-19 doesn’t care, and COVID is making the rules right now. Attempts to open schools this fall will fail of their own accord. The relevant question is how to meet the needs of children, families and the community in the face of that reality.
COVID-19 Arrives
The Humanitarian Disaster is HerePosted in Thoughts
Currently new cases of COVID-19 in Arizona are doubling every 7 days. ICU beds in the state are already full. The rest of the country isn’t that far behind us. You do the math.
Correctly Predicting Failure
It’s time for scientists to get loudPosted in Thoughts
Now is not the time for scientists to be circumspect and silent. We are on the short end of a battle over whether truth even matters. If scientists do not stand up for what is real, who will?
Typhoid Mary on Two Wheels
Spreading COVID one lap at a timePosted in Thoughts
The morning cyclist in my neighborhood may not be standing in the Michigan Statehouse carrying a gun and demanding her right to spread contagion far and wide, but she may as well be.
Pine Boxes
Invest now, the numbers are going upPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
You know those nice charts and graphs that make it look like we are over the hump of COVID-19 and that things are about to get better? Those predictions are dead wrong, with an unfortunate emphasis on “dead.”
Scientists Stuck Inside
Curiosity in the Time of COVIDPosted in For Your ConsiderationThoughts
Imagine three gregarious scientists, each with the gift of the gab, all coping with stay-at-home orders. Of course we started a livestream/podcast talk show! What else would we do? Welcome to the kickoff episode of Scientists Stuck Inside.
After COVID’s First Wave
No getting back to normalPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
Even after COVID-19 kills hundreds of thousands in the U.S. over the coming weeks, we will still be almost as vulnerable to the pandemic as we are today. We’d all love to “get back to normal” after that, but the price could be a second wave, worse than the first. Some see us facing either economic Depression or allowing vast numbers of preventable deaths, but that is a fool’s choice. There are better options if we have the will to find them.
COVID-19
Cutting through the confusionPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
There is a lot of information about COVID-19 out there, much of it misleading. When looking at the future, start with what the science really says.
Great Deceiverism 101
Explanation or Theory? Therein lies the rub.Posted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
If someone can’t tell you how they would know that they are wrong, they don’t have a clue whether they are right.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
One Step at a Time
The not-so-mysterious origin of lifePosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
Once seemingly incomprehensible, the origin of life no longer seems such a mystery. Most of what once appeared as roadblocks are turning out to be superhighways.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
The Mind’s Siren Call
Being certain is a primrose pathPosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
Being certain lights up our brains like a junkie’s next hit. Literally. Unfortunately, being certain and being right are two very, very different things.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
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Watching Rome Burn & Hell Freeze
The fun physics of global cataclysmPosted in For Your Consideration
-
Schools in the Time of COVID
The Decision Will Ultimately Make ItselfPosted in Thoughts
-
COVID-19 Arrives
The Humanitarian Disaster is HerePosted in Thoughts
-
Correctly Predicting Failure
It’s time for scientists to get loudPosted in Thoughts
-
Typhoid Mary on Two Wheels
Spreading COVID one lap at a timePosted in Thoughts
-
Pine Boxes
Invest now, the numbers are going upPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
-
Scientists Stuck Inside
Curiosity in the Time of COVIDPosted in For Your ConsiderationThoughts
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After COVID’s First Wave
No getting back to normalPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
-
COVID-19
Cutting through the confusionPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
-
Great Deceiverism 101
Explanation or Theory? Therein lies the rub.Posted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
-
One Step at a Time
The not-so-mysterious origin of lifePosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
-
The Mind’s Siren Call
Being certain is a primrose pathPosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
-
What do record fire seasons in the West, record hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, record winter storms in the South and the hottest years in history have to do with each other? Everything.
This article originally appeared in the December 2019 issue of my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
You don’t tug on Superman’s cape. You don’t spit into the wind. Yes, schools are desperately important to kids. No, COVID-19 doesn’t care, and COVID is making the rules right now. Attempts to open schools this fall will fail of their own accord. The relevant question is how to meet the needs of children, families and the community in the face of that reality.
Currently new cases of COVID-19 in Arizona are doubling every 7 days. ICU beds in the state are already full. The rest of the country isn’t that far behind us. You do the math.
Now is not the time for scientists to be circumspect and silent. We are on the short end of a battle over whether truth even matters. If scientists do not stand up for what is real, who will?
The morning cyclist in my neighborhood may not be standing in the Michigan Statehouse carrying a gun and demanding her right to spread contagion far and wide, but she may as well be.
You know those nice charts and graphs that make it look like we are over the hump of COVID-19 and that things are about to get better? Those predictions are dead wrong, with an unfortunate emphasis on “dead.”
Imagine three gregarious scientists, each with the gift of the gab, all coping with stay-at-home orders. Of course we started a livestream/podcast talk show! What else would we do? Welcome to the kickoff episode of Scientists Stuck Inside.
Even after COVID-19 kills hundreds of thousands in the U.S. over the coming weeks, we will still be almost as vulnerable to the pandemic as we are today. We’d all love to “get back to normal” after that, but the price could be a second wave, worse than the first. Some see us facing either economic Depression or allowing vast numbers of preventable deaths, but that is a fool’s choice. There are better options if we have the will to find them.
There is a lot of information about COVID-19 out there, much of it misleading. When looking at the future, start with what the science really says.
If someone can’t tell you how they would know that they are wrong, they don’t have a clue whether they are right.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Once seemingly incomprehensible, the origin of life no longer seems such a mystery. Most of what once appeared as roadblocks are turning out to be superhighways.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Being certain lights up our brains like a junkie’s next hit. Literally. Unfortunately, being certain and being right are two very, very different things.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Over his 30 year career as an internationally known astrophysicist, Dr. Jeff Hester was a key member of the team that repaired the Hubble Space Telescope. With one foot always on the frontiers of knowledge, he has been mentor, coach, team leader, award-winning teacher, administrator and speaker, to name a few of the hats he has worn. His Hubble image, the Pillars of Creation, was chosen by Time Magazine as among the 100 most influential photographs in history.

Great Deceiverism 101
Explanation or Theory? Therein lies the rub.
If someone can’t tell you how they would know that they are wrong, they don’t have a clue whether they are right.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
The most rewarding part of teaching intro astronomy was always introducing students to a different and useful way to approach knowledge. I’d start with a fun little activity.
Here is a fun little classroom activity: Meet the Great Deceiver.
Me: “The world was created three seconds ago by a Great Deceiver intent on fooling us into believing that it is much older.”
Amid befuddled stares, a student raises her hand.
Student: “But Dr. Hester, I remember when I was a kid!”
Me: “No, you don’t. The Great Deceiver gave you those false memories three seconds ago.”
Student: “But light from distant stars has traveled for thousands of years!”
Me: “No, it hasn’t. The Great Deceiver just makes it seem like that.”
The questions and responses go on until a student asks the $64,000 question.
Student: “This is crazy. How could you know about a Great Deceiver?”
Me: “I remember my parents telling me about it. The Great Deceiver gave me those memories to show me he exists!”
Then I laugh, they relax, and we get into the oh-so-important distinction between explanations and theories.

If someone is pedaling an idea, the quickest way to tell that it’s snake oil is to ask a simple question. “What objective fact would convince you that your idea is wrong?” If they can’t answer, turn and walk away.
If a theory can explain literally anything, it is useless.
As an explanation, Great Deceiverism is truly amazing. It can explain anything! For every “what about” question, Great Deceiverism has an answer. That very fact is Great Deceiverism’s downfall. Nothing could ever show that Great Deceiverism is wrong. It is unfalsifiable. It can’t be tested. That leaves Great Deceiverism in an epistemological no man’s land. Regardless of whether it is true or not, it can never be more than a flight of fancy that tells us nothing about the world.
Great Deceiverism is even weaker because it’s a solution to a non-problem. There is a far better explanation; I have been alive for going on 60 years, and can tell you physics works. Physics as an explanation is a theory. It makes all sorts of testable predictions, and always comes through with flying colors. That’s how I know the world isn’t three seconds old.
Great Deceiverism comes in many forms.
There are many popular explanations that sit on the shelf right beside the Great Deceiver. Intelligent design is one. I don’t pick on intelligent design because I don’t like it. My opinion makes no more difference than anyone else’s opinion. What puts intelligent design there beside the Great Deceiver is that it is untestable. Whatever we might discover, well, that’s just what the Intelligent Designer decided to do.
Were there no explanatory theory to account for life on Earth, intelligent design might be a tempting philosophical notion to play with. But like the Great Deceiver, intelligent design solves a nonexistent problem. I’ve written about how the random march of entropy produces structure and complexity. I’ve discussed how the unguided algorithm of evolution produces organisms ever better suited to their environments. Those explanations — those theories — make countless testable predictions. So far they have withstood the test. Rather than forcing us to abandon those ideas (as we have had to abandon so many promising notions), the crucible of falsifiability has only made them stronger.
So there it is. Why do I dismiss ideas like the Great Deceiver and intelligent design? Because they are untestable. And because there are successful, testable alternatives that don’t rely on anything but logic and physical law.
The Key Question: What objective evidence would convince you that you are wrong?
Here is my simple challenge to those who would prefer I go easier on intelligent design. Tell me what observation or experimental results would show that intelligent design is incorrect. Tell me what objective evidence would make you abandon the idea. Turn intelligent design into a falsifiable theory, and we can talk. Until then, Great Deceiver, Intelligent Designer, take your pick!
The examples go on and on. Change “three seconds” to “6,000 years,” and many people believe in the Great Deceiver outright. Things like panpsychism and biocentrism, a favorite of another of Astronomy’s columnists, are trendy but untestable, unnecessary cousins of the Great Deceiver.
At the end of our discussion, I would leave my classes with a thought. If someone (even yourself) offers up an explanation, ask, “How would you know if that’s wrong?” If they can’t or won’t give you a good answer, they are peddling Great Deceiverism.
Great Deceiverism 101 ^ Explanation or Theory? Therein lies the rub. ©
Dr. Jeff Hester
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