We rely on our understanding of the world to get through the day, and so in the absence of reliable knowledge we grab onto anything. But if you want to succeed it’s best not to stop there.

It’s one thing to see it when someone else is trying to sell you a bill of goods. It’s another to recognize when you are selling one to yourself.

Some of what you think that you know is fine, but some isn’t. Here’s the rub. You don’t know which is which!  In a rapidly changing high stakes world that simple truth holds the key to your fate.

Many a business postmortem begins with, “I wish I had seen that coming.” The obvious question is, “So why didn’t you?” The painful answer is usually, “Because I wasn’t looking.”

One melted Jaguar later a group of architects in London might wish they had asked an astronomer to take a look at their plans.

Central to my message is the fact that while much of what we think we know may be reliable, much of it is really only a W.A.G. – a wild ass guess.  The problem is that we don’t know which is which.  To make matters worse, our natural tendency is to go out there and actively reinforce those W.A.G.s!  We look for and pay attention to things that agree with our preconceptions and dismiss things that don’t.  In the process we run the risk of solidifying the very notions that might one day be our downfall. 

Humans evolved as a social species. Thinking for ourselves is hard. Going along with our group is easy.

What does it mean to say, “I know?” The way that we answer that question matters. It matters a lot.

If knowledge is power, isn’t it a good idea to make sure that knowledge is reliable? Given a choice, it is probably best to go with what works.