-
Watching Rome Burn & Hell Freeze
The fun physics of global cataclysmPosted in For Your Consideration
What do record fire seasons in the West, record hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, record winter storms in the South and the hottest years in history have to do with each other? Everything.
This article originally appeared in the December 2019 issue of my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Schools in the Time of COVID
The Decision Will Ultimately Make ItselfPosted in Thoughts
You don’t tug on Superman’s cape. You don’t spit into the wind. Yes, schools are desperately important to kids. No, COVID-19 doesn’t care, and COVID is making the rules right now. Attempts to open schools this fall will fail of their own accord. The relevant question is how to meet the needs of children, families and the community in the face of that reality.
COVID-19 Arrives
The Humanitarian Disaster is HerePosted in Thoughts
Currently new cases of COVID-19 in Arizona are doubling every 7 days. ICU beds in the state are already full. The rest of the country isn’t that far behind us. You do the math.
Correctly Predicting Failure
It’s time for scientists to get loudPosted in Thoughts
Now is not the time for scientists to be circumspect and silent. We are on the short end of a battle over whether truth even matters. If scientists do not stand up for what is real, who will?
Typhoid Mary on Two Wheels
Spreading COVID one lap at a timePosted in Thoughts
The morning cyclist in my neighborhood may not be standing in the Michigan Statehouse carrying a gun and demanding her right to spread contagion far and wide, but she may as well be.
Pine Boxes
Invest now, the numbers are going upPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
You know those nice charts and graphs that make it look like we are over the hump of COVID-19 and that things are about to get better? Those predictions are dead wrong, with an unfortunate emphasis on “dead.”
Scientists Stuck Inside
Curiosity in the Time of COVIDPosted in For Your ConsiderationThoughts
Imagine three gregarious scientists, each with the gift of the gab, all coping with stay-at-home orders. Of course we started a livestream/podcast talk show! What else would we do? Welcome to the kickoff episode of Scientists Stuck Inside.
After COVID’s First Wave
No getting back to normalPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
Even after COVID-19 kills hundreds of thousands in the U.S. over the coming weeks, we will still be almost as vulnerable to the pandemic as we are today. We’d all love to “get back to normal” after that, but the price could be a second wave, worse than the first. Some see us facing either economic Depression or allowing vast numbers of preventable deaths, but that is a fool’s choice. There are better options if we have the will to find them.
COVID-19
Cutting through the confusionPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
There is a lot of information about COVID-19 out there, much of it misleading. When looking at the future, start with what the science really says.
Great Deceiverism 101
Explanation or Theory? Therein lies the rub.Posted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
If someone can’t tell you how they would know that they are wrong, they don’t have a clue whether they are right.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
One Step at a Time
The not-so-mysterious origin of lifePosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
Once seemingly incomprehensible, the origin of life no longer seems such a mystery. Most of what once appeared as roadblocks are turning out to be superhighways.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
The Mind’s Siren Call
Being certain is a primrose pathPosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
Being certain lights up our brains like a junkie’s next hit. Literally. Unfortunately, being certain and being right are two very, very different things.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
-
Watching Rome Burn & Hell Freeze
The fun physics of global cataclysmPosted in For Your Consideration
-
Schools in the Time of COVID
The Decision Will Ultimately Make ItselfPosted in Thoughts
-
COVID-19 Arrives
The Humanitarian Disaster is HerePosted in Thoughts
-
Correctly Predicting Failure
It’s time for scientists to get loudPosted in Thoughts
-
Typhoid Mary on Two Wheels
Spreading COVID one lap at a timePosted in Thoughts
-
Pine Boxes
Invest now, the numbers are going upPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
-
Scientists Stuck Inside
Curiosity in the Time of COVIDPosted in For Your ConsiderationThoughts
-
After COVID’s First Wave
No getting back to normalPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
-
COVID-19
Cutting through the confusionPosted in Success & FailureThoughts
-
Great Deceiverism 101
Explanation or Theory? Therein lies the rub.Posted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
-
One Step at a Time
The not-so-mysterious origin of lifePosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
-
The Mind’s Siren Call
Being certain is a primrose pathPosted in For Your ConsiderationUnreasonable Faith
-
What do record fire seasons in the West, record hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, record winter storms in the South and the hottest years in history have to do with each other? Everything.
This article originally appeared in the December 2019 issue of my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
You don’t tug on Superman’s cape. You don’t spit into the wind. Yes, schools are desperately important to kids. No, COVID-19 doesn’t care, and COVID is making the rules right now. Attempts to open schools this fall will fail of their own accord. The relevant question is how to meet the needs of children, families and the community in the face of that reality.
Currently new cases of COVID-19 in Arizona are doubling every 7 days. ICU beds in the state are already full. The rest of the country isn’t that far behind us. You do the math.
Now is not the time for scientists to be circumspect and silent. We are on the short end of a battle over whether truth even matters. If scientists do not stand up for what is real, who will?
The morning cyclist in my neighborhood may not be standing in the Michigan Statehouse carrying a gun and demanding her right to spread contagion far and wide, but she may as well be.
You know those nice charts and graphs that make it look like we are over the hump of COVID-19 and that things are about to get better? Those predictions are dead wrong, with an unfortunate emphasis on “dead.”
Imagine three gregarious scientists, each with the gift of the gab, all coping with stay-at-home orders. Of course we started a livestream/podcast talk show! What else would we do? Welcome to the kickoff episode of Scientists Stuck Inside.
Even after COVID-19 kills hundreds of thousands in the U.S. over the coming weeks, we will still be almost as vulnerable to the pandemic as we are today. We’d all love to “get back to normal” after that, but the price could be a second wave, worse than the first. Some see us facing either economic Depression or allowing vast numbers of preventable deaths, but that is a fool’s choice. There are better options if we have the will to find them.
There is a lot of information about COVID-19 out there, much of it misleading. When looking at the future, start with what the science really says.
If someone can’t tell you how they would know that they are wrong, they don’t have a clue whether they are right.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Once seemingly incomprehensible, the origin of life no longer seems such a mystery. Most of what once appeared as roadblocks are turning out to be superhighways.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Being certain lights up our brains like a junkie’s next hit. Literally. Unfortunately, being certain and being right are two very, very different things.
This article originally appeared in my Astronomy Magazine column, For Your Consideration.
Over his 30 year career as an internationally known astrophysicist, Dr. Jeff Hester was a key member of the team that repaired the Hubble Space Telescope. With one foot always on the frontiers of knowledge, he has been mentor, coach, team leader, award-winning teacher, administrator and speaker, to name a few of the hats he has worn. His Hubble image, the Pillars of Creation, was chosen by Time Magazine as among the 100 most influential photographs in history.

Our Need to Know
We crave certainty, even when it is only an illusion
The human brain craves the sensation of knowing like a drug addict craves the next fix. If real knowledge is uncomfortable or not at hand, we are quite content to just make something up, then convince ourselves it’s real. In a world where knowledge matters, that’s dangerous.
Some of what you think that you know is fine, but some isn’t. Here’s the rub: You don’t know which is which!
Join me for a minute while I discuss the illusion of knowledge that we so often prefer to the real thing.
Psychologists talk about something called the illusion of knowledge. This is one of those things that we all do. It’s the way our brains are wired. We can’t help it. We don’t like to not know things. It’s uncomfortable not to know something that you need to know, and the more you care about the question at hand, the worse that need is.
Our Need to Know lights up scans of the brain.
I’m not talking here about some hand-waving pop psychology from a self-help guide, although it’s an experience that we all share. I’m talking about something that can be seen happening in real time on scans of the brain.
In his book, On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You’re Not, neurologist Robert Burton discusses the mechanisms behind the illusion of knowledge. It turns out that our brains crave the feeling of knowing in the same way that a junky craves a fix. It all has to do with activity in a brain structure called the mesolimbic dopamine pathway. When dopamine is released in this system it is a reward that motivates us to do more of what we are doing.

The mesolimbic dopamine pathway located deep in the brain is what keeps an addict seeking out the next hit, and what motivates us all to hang onto the feeling of knowing, regardless of whether our knowledge is real or an illusion.
The feeling that we know something has nothing to do with whether we are correct.
Once we have that feeling of knowing, our natural tendency is to seize onto what we think that we know for all we are worth. But here’s the rub. While the sensation of knowing might light up our reward and pleasure centers, as stressed in the title of Burton’s book, that sensation has nothing to do with whether or not we are correct.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the more we care about something and the more stress we are under, the more desperately we crave the sensation of certainty. So if we need knowledge but don’t have real answers, what we tend to do is make something up. Then we convince ourselves that we are right. We construct an illusion of knowledge to feed our brains those pleasant dopamine hits that they so love.
It’s hard to tell the difference between knowledge that is real and “knowledge” that is an illusion.
The problem is made worse by the fact that we aren’t aware of what we’ve done. There are a lot of things that we “know,” by which I mean we experience the sensation of knowing. Some of those things are solid. Some of those things are absolutely fine. But some of them aren’t. The kicker is that we don’t know which is which.

The results of the Booz & Co study, “The Lesson of Lost Value” confirm what countless other studies have also found. Most failures are ultimately failures of knowledge.
In a world where knowledge is key to success, often we only discover just how illusory our knowledge is when it bites us in the butt. We usually discover our illusions when there is something that we certain of, something that we know we can rely on… then it falls apart just when we need it the most.
How much should this matter to you? Probably more than you imagine.
If you don’t think that this applies to you, think again. A study by Booz & Co. that found that when businesses fail, over 80% of the value that they lose can be traced back to one cause – a failure of knowledge. In our careers and personal lives, the impact of poor knowledge can be even greater. When knowledge turns out to be an illusion, there is a price to be paid.
Let me ask you with a few questions: What core knowledge and assumptions do you rely on that might be illusory? How could you tell? What can you do about it?
If those questions leave you a little uncomfortable, join the crowd. Fortunately there are ways to take control of your knowledge and move beyond the illusion. Watch this space.
Our Need to Know ^ We crave certainty, even when it is only an illusion ©
Dr. Jeff Hester
Content may not be copied to other sites. All Rights Reserved.